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Determining the supply involves profiling your current work force or segment of the work force, as appropriate to your scope, and determining what the supply will be after expected attrition.
Calculate past attrition by adding up the number of employees who left the agency and dividing by the total number of employees. Currently NYSTEP (New York State Electronic Personnel System) can produce separation data reports to track historical attrition trends by title and fiscal year for retirements, resignations, probationary terminations, etc. In late fall 2001, NYSTEP will also be able to produce reports that actually calculate attrition by agency, title code, and/or location. See NYSTEP Reports for more.
Then project the future supply for your planning horizon by applying estimated attrition rates to the current work force numbers. The estimated attrition rates should be based on a number of variables, including demographic factors (e.g., the aging of the work force) and historical patterns of attrition. Past attrition may not be an accurate predictor of future attrition. However, it is one variable to consider.
At this step, determining the supply assumes no hiring to replace employees who leave. In the gap analysis, you'll compare this profile with the demand and determine the number of staff needed by title or skill sets/competencies by organization, location, etc.
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Who works here now?
Number of employees by:
- Title
- Grade
- Organization
- Protected class
- Location
- Skills/competencies
- Etc.
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